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| #448047 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:40 AM 07.Aug.2011) TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION EMILY ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052011 500 AM EDT SUN AUG 07 2011 ...EMILY REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED... ...HEAVY RAINS OVER GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND GRADUALLY DECREASING... SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.5N 77.7W ABOUT 155 MI...245 KM NNE OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB...29.85 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EMILY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.7 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TODAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE DEPRESSION WILL BE MOVING AWAY FROM THE BAHAMAS AND THE U.S. EAST COAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...BUT EMILY COULD DEGENERATE INTO A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE BY TUESDAY. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1011 MB...29.85 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...EMILY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS THROUGH SUNDAY. ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THIS AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH EMILY. WIND...WIND GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE ARE STILL POSSIBLE IN HEAVY SQUALLS IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS EARLY THIS MORNING. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT. $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN |
