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| #448049 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:46 AM 07.Aug.2011) TCDAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052011 500 AM EDT SUN AUG 07 2011 THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE STRUCTURE OF EMILY DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. SATELLITE AND EARLIER MICROWAVE IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER REMAINS RATHER ELONGATED...DISPLACED NORTHEAST OF A BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KT. THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWS LITTLE TO NO INTENSIFICATION. THIS WOULD SEEM TO BE THE CASE PARTLY BECAUSE OF THE MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT IN WHICH EMILY IS EMBEDDED BUT ALSO BECAUSE OF THE CYCLONE'S CURRENT ORGANIZATION. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND SHIPS ANALYSES INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF RELATIVELY DRIER AIR NEAR AND NORTH OF THE CYCLONE WHICH COULD BE A FACTOR. UW CIMSS AND SHIPS SHEAR ANALYSES ALSO INDICATE MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR OVER THE DEPRESSION WHICH IS FORECAST TO PERSIST IN THE SHORT TERM BEFORE BECOMING WESTERLY AND INCREASING WITHIN 36 HOURS. GLOBAL MODELS NOW SUGGEST THAT EMILY COULD DEGENERATE INTO A TROUGH AROUND OR JUST AFTER THAT TIME BEFORE ULTIMATELY MERGING WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS ADJUSTED DOWNWARD IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH SHIPS/LGEM MODELS. FOLLOWING THE TREND IN THE GLOBAL MODELS... DISSIPATION IS NOW INDICATED SOONER. THE CURRENT MOTION ESTIMATE IS 010/09. UPPER-AIR DATA INDICATE THAT EMILY IS NEAR THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES...ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF A LOW-/MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED NEAR 26N68W. THIS PATTERN SHOULD ALLOW FOR A NORTH-NORTHEAST AND THEN NORTHEAST HEADING DURING THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS...WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. AFTER THAT...AN AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND THE CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE OR ITS REMNANTS TO TURN NORTHEASTWARD OR EVEN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD WITH A SIGNIFICANT ACCELERATION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER AND TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE BUT REMAINS ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0900Z 28.5N 77.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 07/1800Z 29.9N 75.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 08/0600Z 31.7N 72.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 08/1800Z 33.4N 66.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 09/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN |
