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| #448098 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:37 AM 07.Aug.2011) TCDAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052011 1100 AM EDT SUN AUG 07 2011 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT EMILY CONSISTS OF AN EXPOSED SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS LOCATED WELL NORTHEAST OF THE REMAINING DEEP CONVECTION. THIS STRUCTURE IS CONSISTENT WITH 20 TO 25 KT OF NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR AS SHOWN BY THE SHIPS MODEL AND UW-CIMSS SATELLITE ANALYSIS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KT ON THE BASIS OF CONTINUITY AND A DVORAK CI-NUMBER OF 2.0 FROM TAFB. THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH THE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AND THE CYCLONE MOVING OVER GRADUALLY COOLER WATERS UNTIL IT IS ABSORBED INTO A FRONTAL SYSTEM IN 36 TO 48 HOURS. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS TREND AND IS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. IF DEEP CONVECTION DOES NOT RETURN NEAR THE CENTER...EMILY COULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT... OR THE SYSTEM COULD OPEN UP INTO A TROUGH EARLIER THAN DISSIPATION IS INDICATED HERE. SATELLITE FIXES SHOW THAT THE CENTER IS AHEAD OF PREVIOUS ESTIMATES AND A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS TOWARD THE NORTHEAST...035 DEGREES...AT 15 KT. OVERALL...THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED...AS EMILY WILL CONTINUE ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD AND EAST-NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A GRADUALLY AMPLIFYING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH MOVING OFF THE COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. THE NEW NHC TRACK FORECAST IS LEFT OF AND FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE...DUE TO THE INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION AND AN ADJUSTMENT TOWARD THE NEW MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/1500Z 30.1N 76.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 08/0000Z 31.6N 74.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 08/1200Z 33.4N 69.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 09/0000Z 35.2N 63.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 09/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN |
