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| #44928 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:34 AM 09.Sep.2005) TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM NATE DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT FRI SEP 09 2005 LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS NATE ALMOST DEVOID OF ANY DEEP CONVECTION. VISIBLE PICTURES SHOW NATE WITH AN EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION AS A RESULT OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS OF SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 4.5...4.0...AND 4.0 FROM TAFB...SAB...AND KGWC RESPECTIVELY...BASED PRIMARILY ON CONSTRAINTS OF THE TECHNIQUE. DUE TO THE DEGENERATION OF DEEP CONVECTION AND DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITIES CONTINUING TO LOWER...NATE HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM. NATE REMAINS INFLUENCED BY STRONG UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR BEGINNING TO WRAP AROUND THE CENTER CIRCULATION. NATE SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN...THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS CLOSELY WITH THE SHIPS GUIDANCE. NATE IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 070/21. NATE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE QUICKLY EAST-NORTHEASTWARD BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL IN TWO OR THREE DAYS. THE CYCLONE SHOULD BE ABSORBED WITHIN A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SOON AFTER. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS CLOSELY WITH CONSENSUS GUIDANCE AND IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE INITIAL WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED BASED ON A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS. FORECASTER MAINELLI/AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 09/1500Z 34.3N 54.6W 60 KT 12HR VT 10/0000Z 35.1N 50.9W 55 KT 24HR VT 10/1200Z 35.8N 46.2W 50 KT 36HR VT 11/0000Z 36.8N 41.5W 45 KT 48HR VT 11/1200Z 39.1N 37.1W 40 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 12/1200Z 47.0N 27.5W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 13/1200Z...ABSORBED |
