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| #44931 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:37 AM 09.Sep.2005) TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 33 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT FRI SEP 09 2005 HIGH RESOLUTION QUIKSCAT SHOWS THAT MARIA HAS AN INTENSITY OF ABOUT 50-55 KT. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY SUBJECTIVE DVORAK NUMBERS THAT ARE UNCHANGED FROM 6 HOURS AGO. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 55 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. AN EYE-LIKE FEATURE COMES AND GOES ON SATELLITE PICTURES WITH BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION TRYING TO WRAP AROUND THE CENTER. A COMBINATION OF COOL UPPER-AIR TEMPERATURES AND SSTS HOLDING STEADY NEAR 24-25C HAS PROBABLY HELD OFF THE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION OF MARIA LONGER THAN EXPECTED. CYCLONE PHASE SPACE DIAGRAMS FROM FSU WERE CORRECT YESTERDAY IN DELAYING THE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION OF MARIA AND NOW SUGGEST THIS TRANSITION SHOULD OCCUR TOMORROW. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS BEEN ADJUSTED DOWNWARD TO 988 MB IN ACCORDANCE WITH A PRESSURE FROM BUOY 44901 OF 992.3 MB A FEW HOURS AGO WHEN THE CENTER OF THE STORM WAS ABOUT 65 NM TO THE SOUTHEAST. AMSU PRESSURE ESTIMATES FROM CIMSS AND CIRA ARE ALSO LOWER THAN 990 MB. MARIA IS SLOWLY ACCELERATING...NOW MOVING 050/13. THIS ACCELERATION SHOULD CONTINUE AS MARIA LOSES STEERING FROM THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND IS INFLUENCED BY A LARGER MID-LATITUDE TROUGH OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA. THIS TROUGH SHOULD DROP SOUTHWARD AND CAPTURE THE CYCLONE IN A DAY OR TWO... WITH FAVORABLE BAROCLINIC DYNAMICS LIKELY IN PLACE FOR RE-INTENSIFICATION INTO A LARGE AND POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE WITH WINDS TO HURRICANE-FORCE. AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD THE STORM WILL PROBABLY BE ABSORBED INTO A LOW OVER SCANDINAVIA. WIND RADII WERE ADJUSTED AT THE INITIAL TIME USING QUIKSCAT WITH FORECAST RADII USING THE GFS MODEL DURING THE EXTRATROPICAL STAGE OF MARIA. FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 09/1500Z 40.9N 42.7W 55 KT 12HR VT 10/0000Z 42.3N 40.7W 50 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 24HR VT 10/1200Z 45.1N 38.2W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 36HR VT 11/0000Z 48.5N 35.5W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 11/1200Z 52.0N 33.0W 65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 12/1200Z 59.0N 26.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 13/1200Z 65.0N 8.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 14/1200Z...ABSORBED |
