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#44934 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:40 AM 09.Sep.2005)
TCMAT1
TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162005
1500Z FRI SEP 09 2005

AT 11AM EDT...1500Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE EAST COAST
OF FLORIDA FROM SEBASTIAN INLET NORTHWARD TO FLAGLER BEACH...AND A
THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM NORTH OF FLAGLER BEACH TO FERNANDINA
BEACH HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED.

INTERESTS FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA THROUGH THE CAROLINAS SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF OPHELIA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.5N 78.9W AT 09/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 983 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 60SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS..175NE 100SE 75SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.5N 78.9W AT 09/1500Z
AT 09/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.3N 79.1W

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 30.0N 78.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 30.6N 78.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 31.0N 77.4W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 30.5N 77.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 31.0N 78.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 70SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z 31.5N 80.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 14/1200Z 33.5N 81.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.5N 78.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/2100Z

FORECASTER AVILA