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| #44937 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:43 AM 09.Sep.2005) TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT FRI SEP 09 2005 OPHELIA IS A PECULIAR CYCLONE. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL AGENCIES INDICATE THAT OPHELIA IS A HURRICANE AND THE LATEST MINIMUM PRESSURE REPORTED BY A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 983 MB. NORMALLY...THIS VALUE WOULD CORRESPOND TO A SYSTEM OF HURRICANE STRENGTH. HOWEVER...THE MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS AND THE MAXIMUM SURFACE WINDS MEASURED BY THE SFMR ON BOARD OF THE PLANE ARE 65 KNOTS AND 49 KNOTS RESPECTIVELY. THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 55 KNOTS. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE CLOUD PATTERN AND THE DROP IN PRESSURE...OPHELIA IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. OPHELIA IS MOVING VERY SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 030 DEGREES AT 4 KNOTS. STEERING CURRENTS REMAIN WEAK AND THE CYCLONE IS LOCATED AT THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. THIS TROUGH WILL BRING OPHELIA SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHEAST FOR ABOUT A DAY OR TWO. THEN...A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS PATTERN WOULD FORCE OPHELIA WESTWARD AND WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE U.S. COAST. ONE BY ONE...RELIABLE MODELS HAVE BEEN CHANGING THEIR TUNE TO MIMIC THE GFDL...AND UNANIMOUSLY BRING OPHELIA BACK TO THE UNITED STATES IN ABOUT 4 TO 5 DAYS. THE GFS...WHICH HAS BEEN CHANGING BACK AND FORTH...HAS BROUGHT OPHELIA BACK TOWARD THE COAST FOR THE PAST TWO RUNS. THIS MODEL CONSENSUS IS THE BASIS TO BRING OPHELIA AS A HURRICANE TOWARD THE GEORGIA OR SOUTH CAROLINA COAST IN ABOUT 4 DAYS. BECAUSE OPHELIA IS CURRENTLY MOVING AWAY FROM THE U.S. COAST EAST... THE WATCHES AND WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED. NEW WATCHES AND WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED IN THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 09/1500Z 29.5N 78.9W 55 KT 12HR VT 10/0000Z 30.0N 78.5W 65 KT 24HR VT 10/1200Z 30.6N 78.0W 70 KT 36HR VT 11/0000Z 31.0N 77.4W 70 KT 48HR VT 11/1200Z 30.5N 77.5W 70 KT 72HR VT 12/1200Z 31.0N 78.5W 75 KT 96HR VT 13/1200Z 31.5N 80.0W 75 KT 120HR VT 14/1200Z 33.5N 81.5W 30 KT...INLAND |
