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| #44978 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:28 PM 09.Sep.2005) TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM NATE DISCUSSION NUMBER 17 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT FRI SEP 09 2005 A COMBINATION OF STRONG WESTERLY SHEAR AND DRY MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL AIR CONTINUES TO WEAKEN NATE. ALL OF THE LIMITED DEEP CONVECTION IS IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE CYCLONE WITH AN EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CENTER. SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS ARE FALLING AS QUICKLY AS THE RULES ALLOW AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN REDUCED TO 55 KT....WHICH COULD BE A BIT GENEROUS. SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE QUITE HIGH... MOSTLY 25 KT OR GREATER... DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS... WHICH SHOULD INDUCE ADDITIONAL WEAKENING. IN ADDITION...NATE WILL BE CROSSING THE 26C ISOTHERM IN ABOUT 12 HOURS...ACCELERATING THE TRANSITION INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE AROUND 36 HOURS. NATE IS MOVING QUICKLY TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 075/21. THE CYCLONE EXPECTED TO WHIP AROUND THE SOUTH SIDE OF MARIA FOR ABOUT 36 HOURS... THEN TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST DUE TO A LARGE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE GFS MODEL KEEPS NATE SEPARATE FROM THE TROUGH FOR ABOUT 3 DAYS BEFORE BECOMING ABSORBED IN THE LARGER CIRCULATION... AS DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY NEAR THE MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 09/2100Z 34.8N 52.1W 55 KT 12HR VT 10/0600Z 35.3N 48.3W 45 KT 24HR VT 10/1800Z 36.0N 44.0W 40 KT 36HR VT 11/0600Z 37.5N 39.5W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 11/1800Z 40.5N 35.5W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 12/1800Z 50.0N 26.0W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 13/1800Z...DISSIPATED |
