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| #4499 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:44 PM 12.Aug.2004) TCPAT3 BULLETIN HURRICANE CHARLEY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 13A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM EDT THU AUG 12 2004 ...CHARLEY RAPIDLY STRENGTHENS INTO A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE AS IT MOVES TOWARD WESTERN CUBA... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE DRY TORTUGAS TO THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE...AND FOR THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST FROM EAST CAPE SABLE TO BONITA BEACH. THE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED NORTHWARD LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF BONITA BEACH TO THE SUWANNEE RIVER. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO OCEAN REEF...AND ALONG THE SOUTH FLORIDA MAINLAND FROM OCEAN REEF TO EAST CAPE SABLE...INCLUDING ALL OF FLORIDA BAY. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST LATER TODAY. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING PROVINCES OF WESTERN CUBA...PINAR DEL RIO ...LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA... MATANZAS...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. HOWEVER...THE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY. AT 2 PM EDT...1800Z...INFORMATION FROM RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AND RADARS FROM CUBA INDICATE THE CENTER OF HURRICANE CHARLEY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.4 NORTH... LONGITUDE 81.5 WEST OR ABOUT 190 MILES... 305 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HAVANA CUBA. CHARLEY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...CHARLEY IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER OR JUST EAST OF THE ISLE OF YOUTH TONIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT ARE NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THIS MAKES CHARLEY A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND CHARLEY COULD BECOME A CATEGORY THREE OR MAJOR HURRICANE BEFORE IT MAKES LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF CUBA. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES... 45 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES...205 KM. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 980 MB...28.94 INCHES. ABOVE NORMAL TIDES...ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...ARE EXPECTED IN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS LATER TODAY. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE FLORIDA KEYS. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 6 TO 10 FEET ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE LIKELY IN ASSOCIATION WITH CHARLEY. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. REPEATING THE 2 PM EDT POSITION...20.4 N... 81.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 105 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 980 MB. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM EDT. FORECASTER STEWART |
