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| #450375 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:34 PM 15.Aug.2011) TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM GERT DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072011 1100 PM AST MON AUG 15 2011 THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE APPEARS TO BE NEAR THE NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF THE MAIN MASS OF DEEP CONVECTION...AND MICROWAVE DATA SUGGEST SOME NORTHEASTWARD TILT OF THE CENTER WITH HEIGHT. DVORAK ESTIMATES OF INTENSITY RANGE FROM 35 TO 55 KT AND THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS HELD AT 50 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. GERT SHOULD BE TRAVERSING WARM WATER FOR ONLY ANOTHER 12 TO 18 HOURS... SO WEAKENING IS LIKELY TO COMMENCE IN 24 HOURS...IF NOT SOONER. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS IN LINE WITH THE STATISTICAL- DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE SYSTEM BECOMING EMBEDDED WITHIN A BAROCLINIC ZONE IN 36 HOURS AND BECOMING ABSORBED BY A LARGE NORTH ATLANTIC LOW IN 2 TO 3 DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS SCENARIO. CENTER FIXES HAVE BECOME MORE UNCERTAIN THIS EVENING BUT MY BEST ESTIMATE IS THAT THERE HAS BEEN AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND THE MOTION IS NOW NEAR 030/16. GERT IS BEING SWEPT UP IN THE FLOW AHEAD OF A LARGE TROUGH MOVING OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE RIGHT IS ANTICIPATED AS THE CYCLONE MOVES INTO HIGHER LATITUDES AND BECOMES INFLUENCED BY A MORE ZONAL STEERING CURRENT. THD OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS A LITTLE TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE SUITE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0300Z 34.7N 61.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 16/1200Z 37.3N 59.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 17/0000Z 40.8N 55.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 17/1200Z 44.0N 49.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 18/0000Z 46.5N 41.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER PASCH |
