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| #450426 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:37 AM 16.Aug.2011) TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM GERT DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072011 500 AM AST TUE AUG 16 2011 GERT APPEARS TO BE WEAKENING THIS MORNING...WITH THE ASSOCIATED CLOUD TOPS WARMING AND BECOMING LESS CIRCULAR. IN ADDITION...THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS BECOME EXPOSED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE WEAKENING CONVECTION. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS LOWERED TO 40 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. A CONTINUED GRADUAL WEAKENING OF GERT IS EXPECTED AS THE STORM CROSSES THE 26C ISOTHERM LATER THIS MORNING AND MOVES INTO STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. GERT IS FORECAST TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IN ABOUT 24 HOURS AS IT MOVES OVER WATERS NEAR 20C...BUT THIS COULD OCCUR SOONER ESPECIALLY IF THE CURRENT TREND CONTINUES. WHATEVER IS LEFT OF GERT WILL BE ABSORBED INTO A FRONT IN A LITTLE OVER 2 DAYS. THE TROPICAL STORM IS ACCELERATING INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC WATERS...AND THE LATEST INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 035/19. AN ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND A GRADUAL TURN TO THE RIGHT ARE FORECAST AS GERT BECOMES MORE EMBEDDED IN THE STRONG MID-LATITUDE FLOW TO THE EAST OF A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH ALONG THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND ON THE EASTWARD SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0900Z 36.4N 59.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 16/1800Z 38.9N 56.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 17/0600Z 42.2N 51.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 17/1800Z 45.4N 45.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 18/0600Z 48.5N 36.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI |
