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| #45059 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:49 AM 10.Sep.2005) TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM NATE DISCUSSION NUMBER 19 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT SAT SEP 10 2005 NATE HAS BEEN DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION FOR OVER 12 HOURS AND APPEARS WELL ON ITS WAY TO BEING CLASSIFIED AS A REMNANT LOW. IF NATE DOES NOT PRODUCE DEEP CONVECTION SOON...IT WILL NO LONGER MEET THE CRITERIA FOR A TROPICAL CYCLONE. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES...BASED SOLELY ON CONSTRAINTS...ARE 45 KT FROM TAFB AND 35 KT FROM SAB. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 45 KT BASED ON A NEARBY SHIP WCZ8589 WHICH HAS BEEN PROVIDING VALUABLE INFORMATION REGARDING THE WIND AND SEAS RADII DURING THE LAST TWO ADVISORIES. LACKING THE NECESSARY CONVECTION TO MAINTAIN STRONG WINDS...THE REMNANT LOW OF NATE SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPIN DOWN OVER THE NEXT 2 DAYS AS IT BECOMES ABSORBED BY A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT IS EXPECTED TO FORM FROM THE EVOLUTION OF MARIA INTO A LARGE AND POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE. NONETHELESS...THE REMNANT CIRCULATION OF NATE SHOULD CONTINUE TO PRODUCE WINDS TO GALE FORCE AS IT ACCELERATES NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE FRONT. NATE CONTINUES TO BE STEERED DUE EASTWARD BUT A LITTLE SLOWER THAN BEFORE AT 090/15. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS APPEAR TO BE MAINTAINING NATE AS A MEDIUM TO DEEP FEATURE THUS ACCOUNTING FOR THEIR POLEWARD TRACK BIAS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS AGAIN ADJUSTED SOUTHWARD BASICALLY ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS-BASED BAMS TRAJECTORY MODEL. NATE IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM OVERTAKES IT FROM THE WEST. FORECASTER RHOME/KNABB FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 10/0900Z 34.8N 48.1W 45 KT 12HR VT 10/1800Z 34.8N 45.3W 40 KT...REMNANT LOW 24HR VT 11/0600Z 35.5N 41.0W 40 KT...REMNANT LOW 36HR VT 11/1800Z 37.2N 36.5W 35 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 12/0600Z 41.5N 31.8W 35 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 13/0600Z...ABSORBED |
