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| #451111 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:58 PM 18.Aug.2011) TCDAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082011 1100 PM EDT THU AUG 18 2011 SATELLITE IMAGES DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS BEFORE SUNSET INDICATED THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION OF THE WAVE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA WAS BECOMING BETTER DEFINED WITH LOW CLOUDS MOVING WITHIN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OFFSHORE OF THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN HONDURAS. MICROWAVE DATA FROM THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS CONFIRM THAT THE SYSTEM HAS A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION AND A RECENT 0134Z SSMIS PASS EVEN HAS A WEAK RING FEATURE IN THE 37 GHZ CHANNEL. SIGNIFICANT 24H PRESSURE FALLS OF 3 TO 4 MB HAVE ALSO BEEN OBSERVED AT BUOY 42057...WHICH HAVE LONG BEEN A HALLMARK OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION. DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T2.0 FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...IN ADDITION TO THE ABOVE DATA...SUPPORT ADVISORIES BEING INITIATED ON A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. A PEAK 1-MIN WIND OF 27 KT FROM THE BUOY AND EARLIER ASCAT DATA SUGGEST AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF ABOUT 30 KT. THE DEPRESSION DOES NOT HAVE MUCH TIME TO STRENGTHEN BEFORE THE CIRCULATION INTERACTS WITH THE NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS. ONLY MODEST STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...WHICH IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS. GIVEN HOW CLOSE THE SYSTEM IS TO LAND...IT IS ALSO QUITE POSSIBLE THE DEPRESSION MAY NOT STRENGTHEN AT ALL AND WEAKEN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF HONDURAS. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/10. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD GENERALLY STEER THE SYSTEM TO THE WEST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS SCENARIO IS SUPPORTED BY MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS...WITH THE GFDL FORECAST OF THE DEPRESSION MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE BEING CONSIDERED AN UNLIKELY SOLUTION. THE NHC FORECAST LIES BETWEEN THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE ECMWF MODEL. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/0300Z 15.4N 82.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 19/1200Z 15.5N 83.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 20/0000Z 15.7N 84.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 36H 20/1200Z 15.9N 86.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER 48H 21/0000Z 16.2N 88.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 22/0000Z 17.0N 93.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 23/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/BROWN |
