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| #45118 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:55 AM 10.Sep.2005) TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM NATE DISCUSSION NUMBER 20 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT SAT SEP 10 2005 A QUIKSCAT PASS THIS MORNING WAS VERY REVEALING ON THE LOW-LEVEL STRUCTURE OF NATE. THE SYSTEM HAS A VERY LARGE RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS... ABOUT 90 NM... IN COMBINATION WITH AN ASYMMETRIC WIND DISTRIBUTION. IN ADDITION... SATELLITE PICTURES SHOW THAT NATE CONTINUES TO HAVE NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION AND STRONG WESTERLY SHEAR. THEREFORE NATE IS BEING DECLARED AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE...THOUGH IT HAS A FEW CHARACTERISTICS OF A REMNANT LOW AS WELL. QUIKSCAT SHOWED WINDS OF ABOUT 40 KT SO THIS WILL BE IN THE INITIAL INTENSITY. NO SIGNIFICANT BAROCLINIC RESTRENGTHENING IS FORECAST IN AGREEMENT WITH GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE. NATE CONTINUES TO ZIP ALONG TO THE EAST... ABOUT 085/20. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE... WITH NATE BECOMING A SHALLOW SYSTEM. A GRADUAL BEND TO A NORTHEAST TRACK SHOULD OCCUR DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE LOWER TO MIDDLE LEVEL WINDS SHIFT AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT SHOULD ABSORB THE CYCLONE IN ABOUT 3 DAYS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE WESTERN AZORES COULD RECEIVE GALE-FORCE WINDS WITH THE EXTRATROPICAL VERSION OF NATE. THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ON NATE FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER. FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 10/1500Z 34.6N 44.8W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 12HR VT 11/0000Z 35.0N 41.5W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 24HR VT 11/1200Z 36.5N 37.5W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 36HR VT 12/0000Z 39.5N 32.5W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 12/1200Z 44.0N 28.0W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 13/1200Z...ABSORBED |
