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| #451189 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:43 AM 19.Aug.2011) TCDAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082011 500 AM EDT FRI AUG 19 2011 THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION HAS NOT BEEN EASY TO LOCATE THIS MORNING. BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION FROM EARLIER MICROWAVE DATA...THE CENTER IS ESTIMATED TO BE ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF A SMALL CLUSTER OF DEEP CONVECTION OFF THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN HONDURAS. THIS YIELDS AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 270/10. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A MORE-OR-LESS WESTWARD MOTION FOR THE REMAINDER OF ITS EXISTENCE WHILE BEING STEERED BY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND LIES AT THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...NEAR THE GFS...ECMWF...AND THE SIMPLER BAM MODELS. ALTHOUGH A 72 HOUR FORECAST POINT IS PROVIDED...IT IS LIKELY THAT THE HIGH TERRAIN OF GUATEMALA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO WILL HAVE ANNIHILATED THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION BY THAT TIME. DVORAK NUMBERS ARE T2.0 FROM TAFB AND T2.5 FROM SAB...AND THE INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 30 KT. AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE DEPRESSION LATER THIS MORNING AND SHOULD PROVIDE MORE CERTAINTY IN THE INTENSITY...NOT TO MENTION THE CENTER LOCATION...IF IT EXISTS AT ALL. LITTLE TO NO STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS SINCE THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO SKIRT ALONG THE COAST OF...OR MOVE INLAND OVER...HONDURAS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS...BUT IF THE DEPRESSION MOVES OVER WATER FOR A LONGER PERIOD OF TIME IT COULD STRENGTHEN A LITTLE MORE AS SHOWN BY THE STATISTICAL SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS. IT COULD ALSO JUST AS EASILY MOVE OVER LAND AND NEVER RE-EMERGE OVER WATER...WHICH MAY PRECLUDE ANY INTENSIFICATION AT ALL. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/0900Z 15.5N 83.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 19/1800Z 15.6N 84.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 24H 20/0600Z 15.8N 86.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 36H 20/1800Z 16.1N 87.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER 48H 21/0600Z 16.4N 89.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 72H 22/0600Z 17.0N 94.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 23/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BERG/AVILA |
