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| #451354 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:46 PM 19.Aug.2011) TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM HARVEY DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082011 500 PM EDT FRI AUG 19 2011 EARLIER REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATED THAT TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT WAS ON THE VERGE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL STORM. SINCE THAT TIME...THE CONVECTIVE BANDING HAS BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED AND SATELLITE ESTIMATES FROM SAB AND TAFB HAVE INCREASED TO 45 KT. BASED ON THESE DATA...THE DEPRESSION WAS UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM HARVEY AT 1800 UTC AND IS NOW ESTIMATED TO HAVE WINDS OF 40 KT. THE NEXT AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO REACH THE STORM NEAR 00Z. THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 280/10. THERE IS NO CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC REASONING FOR THE TRACK FORECAST. A LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE NORTHERN GULF COAST IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS...AND THIS SHOULD STEER THE CYCLONE GENERALLY WESTWARD TO WEST- NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH ITS LIFETIME. ONE CHANGE SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY IS THAT THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND THE FORECAST TRACK HAVE SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE NORTH...BRINGING THE CENTER BRIEFLY OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE BETWEEN 48-72 HOURS. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS IN THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE NEAR THE VARIOUS CONSENSUS MODELS. CURRENT CONVECTIVE TRENDS AND GOOD CIRRUS OUTFLOW IN THE NORTHWESTERN SEMICIRCLE SUGGEST HARVEY SHOULD CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN UNTIL LANDFALL IN BELIZE. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR A PEAK INTENSITY OF 55 KT NEAR LANDFALL IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS. THEREAFTER...HARVEY SHOULD SLOWLY WEAKEN AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE OVER SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO. THERE ARE TWO NOTES ABOUT THE INTENSITY FORECAST. FIRST...THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION INDEX OF THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF 25 KT OF INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND THE INTENSITY PROBABILITIES TABLE SHOWS A 13 PERCENT CHANCE OF HARVEY BEING A HURRICANE IN 24 HOURS. SECOND...THE INTENSITIES LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD COULD REQUIRE ADJUSTMENT IF THE CENTER MOVES FARTHER OUT INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/2100Z 16.5N 84.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 20/0600Z 16.7N 86.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 20/1800Z 17.1N 87.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 21/0600Z 17.6N 89.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 48H 21/1800Z 18.0N 91.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 72H 22/1800Z 18.5N 96.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 23/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BEVEN |
