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| #451448 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:58 PM 19.Aug.2011) TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM HARVEY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082011 800 PM EDT FRI AUG 19 2011 ...AIRCRAFT FINDS HARVEY JUST NORTH OF THE COAST OF HONDURAS... SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.1N 84.6W ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM E OF ISLA ROATAN HONDURAS ABOUT 255 MI...415 KM ESE OF BELIZE CITY MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...14 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE BAY ISLANDS OF HONDURAS * THE COAST OF BELIZE * THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM PUNTA GRUESA SOUTHWARD TO CHETUMAL A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM PUNTA PATUCA WESTWARD * THE COAST OF GUATEMALA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE AT ANY TIME WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT HARVEY IS LOCATED FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED. AT 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HARVEY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.6 WEST. HARVEY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 9 MPH...14 KM/H. A GENERAL WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF HARVEY WILL PASS NEAR OR OVER THE BAY ISLANDS OF HONDURAS LATE TONIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS THE COAST OF BELIZE SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AS HARVEY APPROACHES THE BAY ISLANDS AND BELIZE. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM AIRCRAFT DATA IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE BAY ISLANDS OF HONDURAS TONIGHT...AND OVER THE COAST OF BELIZE AND THE SOUTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS TONIGHT...AND ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF GUATEMALA ON SATURDAY. RAINFALL...HARVEY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ACROSS HONDURAS...GUATEMALA...AND BELIZE AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES...ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE COAST NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE HARVEY MAKES LANDFALL. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT. $$ FORECASTER BROWN/BLAKE |
