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| #451488 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:55 PM 19.Aug.2011) TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM HARVEY DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082011 1100 PM EDT FRI AUG 19 2011 DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT THIS EVENING INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF HARVEY WAS LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE COAST OF HONDURAS. THIS WAS A LITTLE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE EARLIER ESTIMATES AND REQUIRED A RELOCATION ON THE 0000 UTC INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY. THE AIRCRAFT ALSO REPORTED A MAXIMUM 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 53 KT AND BELIEVABLE SFMR WINDS OF 45-50 KT. A DROPSONDE THAT JUST MISSED THE CENTER MEASURED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 997 MB WITH 32 KT AT THE SURFACE. THIS SUGGESTS THAT THE MINIMUM PRESSURE IS AROUND 994 MB... A DROP OF ABOUT 11 MB SINCE THIS MORNING. THESE DATA SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KT. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK ARE CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING. HARVEY WILL BE TRAVERSING VERY WARM WATER AND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT. THE ONLY INHIBITING FACTOR IS ITS CLOSE PROXIMITY TO LAND. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ASSUMES THAT HARVEY WILL MOVE A LITTLE NORTH OF DUE WEST AND BE FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS NEAR THE UPPER END OF THE GUIDANCE...IN CLOSEST AGREEMENT WITH THE STATISTICAL SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS. THE NEW FORECAST NOW CALLS FOR HARVEY TO BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE REACHING THE COAST OF BELIZE IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. AFTER LANDFALL...STEADY WEAKENING IS PREDICTED AND HARVEY IS LIKELY TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO IN 2-3 DAYS. BASED ON THE AIRCRAFT FIXES THE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/8...A LITTLE SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED. HARVEY SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE TRACK MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO. HOWEVER... THE 0000 UTC GUIDANCE SHIFTED A LITTLE SOUTHWARD...PRIMARILY DUE TO THE SOUTHEASTWARD RELOCATION OF THE CENTER. THIS REQUIRED A SOUTHWARD ADJUSTMENT OF THE NHC TRACK AND THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/0300Z 16.2N 85.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 20/1200Z 16.4N 86.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 21/0000Z 16.8N 88.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND 36H 21/1200Z 17.3N 90.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 48H 22/0000Z 17.7N 93.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 72H 23/0000Z 18.5N 96.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 24/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BROWN/BLAKE |
