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| #451489 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:55 PM 19.Aug.2011) TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM HARVEY ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082011 1100 PM EDT FRI AUG 19 2011 ...HARVEY STRENGTHENS OFF THE COAST OF HONDURAS...HEADING FOR THE BAY ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.2N 85.2W ABOUT 95 MI...150 KM E OF ISLA ROATAN HONDURAS ABOUT 220 MI...350 KM ESE OF BELIZE CITY MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.35 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS REPLACED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE NORTH COAST OF HONDURAS FROM PUNTA PATUCA WESTWARD WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE BAY ISLANDS OF HONDURAS * THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM PUNTA PATUCA WESTWARD * THE COAST OF BELIZE * THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM PUNTA GRUESA SOUTHWARD TO CHETUMAL A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF GUATEMALA HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG A PORTION OF THE COAST OF BELIZE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HARVEY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.2 WEST. HARVEY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H. A GENERAL WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF HARVEY WILL PASS NEAR OR OVER THE BAY ISLANDS OF HONDURAS LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY AND MOVE ACROSS THE COAST OF BELIZE SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR SATURDAY NIGHT. DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED AND HARVEY IS NOW FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE REACHING THE COAST OF BELIZE. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES...65 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM AIRCRAFT DATA WAS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE BAY ISLANDS AND ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF HONDURAS TONIGHT...AND OVER THE COAST OF BELIZE AND THE SOUTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG A PORTION OF THE COAST OF BELIZE BEGINNING SATURDAY AFTERNOON. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF GUATEMALA ON SATURDAY. RAINFALL...HARVEY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS HONDURAS...GUATEMALA...AND BELIZE AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES...ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE COAST NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE HARVEY MAKES LANDFALL. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM EDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT. $$ FORECASTER BROWN/BLAKE |
