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| #451573 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:55 AM 20.Aug.2011) TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM HARVEY ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082011 400 AM CDT SAT AUG 20 2011 ...HARVEY VERY NEAR ROATAN...PRODUCING HEAVY RAINS ON THE BAY ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.4N 86.5W ABOUT 10 MI...15 KM NE OF ISLA ROATAN HONDURAS ABOUT 135 MI...220 KM SE OF BELIZE CITY MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.35 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF GUATEMALA HAS CHANGED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE COAST OF GUATEMALA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE BAY ISLANDS OF HONDURAS * THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM PUNTA PATUCA WESTWARD * THE COAST OF GUATEMALA * THE COAST OF BELIZE * THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA GRUESA SOUTHWARD TO CHETUMAL HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG A PORTION OF THE COAST OF BELIZE LATER TODAY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HARVEY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.5 WEST. HARVEY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ON SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF HARVEY IS FORECAST TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE BAY ISLANDS OF HONDURAS DURING THE MORNING AND MOVE INLAND ALONG THE COAST OF BELIZE THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND HARVEY COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE IT MOVES INLAND THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES...65 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE BAY ISLANDS AND ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS DURING THE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED ALONG THE COASTS OF GUATEMALA...BELIZE...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO BY THIS AFTERNOON. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG A PORTION OF THE COAST OF BELIZE THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT. RAINFALL...HARVEY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS HONDURAS...GUATEMALA... BELIZE...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES...ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE COAST NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE HARVEY MAKES LANDFALL. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DAMAGING WAVES. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...700 AM CDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 AM CDT. $$ FORECASTER BERG/STEWART |
