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| #451666 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:37 PM 20.Aug.2011) TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM HARVEY DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082011 400 PM CDT SAT AUG 20 2011 THE CENTER OF HARVEY MADE LANDFALL NEAR DANGRIGA TOWN BELIZE NEAR 1800 UTC WITH MAXIMUM WINDS OF AROUND 50 KT. JUST BEFORE LANDFALL...AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTED 63-KT WINDS AT 850 MB AND AN ATTEMPT TO FORM AN EYEWALL. SINCE LANDFALL...SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR DATA FROM BELIZE SHOW LESS CURVATURE IN THE CONVECTIVE BANDING NEAR THE CENTER...ALTHOUGH THE CONVECTION REMAINS STRONG. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 45 KT. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 285/11. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NORTH OF HARVEY SHOULD STEER THE CYCLONE GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD UNTIL DISSIPATION. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND LIES NEAR THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. HARVEY SHOULD STEADILY WEAKEN AS IT CROSSES BELIZE AND GUATEMALA AND MOVES INTO MEXICO...AND IT IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE COMPLETELY OVER SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO BETWEEN 36-48 HOURS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/2100Z 17.2N 88.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 12H 21/0600Z 17.4N 90.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 24H 21/1800Z 17.7N 92.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 36H 22/0600Z 17.9N 94.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 22/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BEVEN |
