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| #451694 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:16 PM 20.Aug.2011) TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM IRENE SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011 700 PM AST SAT AUG 20 2011 ...TROPICAL STORM FORMS EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED... SUMMARY OF 700 PM AST...2300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.9N 58.5W ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM E OF DOMINICA ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM ESE OF GUADELOUPE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...VIEQUES AND CULEBRA. THE GOVERNMENT OF CURACAO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...AND ST. MAARTIN. THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF BARBADOS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR DOMINICA. THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR BARBUDA...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...ANTIGUA...MONTSERRAT... ANGUILLA...AND THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUERTO RICO...U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...VIEQUES AND CULEBRA * SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...AND ST. MAARTIN * DOMINICA * BARBUDA...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...ANTIGUA...ANGUILLA...MONTSERRAT * BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. HURRICANE CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC LATE ON MONDAY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 700 PM AST...2300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IRENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 58.5 WEST. IRENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 22 MPH...35 KM/H...AND A MOTION TOWARD WEST-NORTHWEST AT A SLOWER RATE OF SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...IRENE WILL PASS THROUGH THE LEEWARD ISLANDS EARLY SUNDAY...AND MOVE INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ON SUNDAY. IRENE COULD APPROACH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC LATE MONDAY. DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND IRENE COULD BECOME A HURRICANE ON MONDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 120 MILES...195 KM ...MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BY LATE MONDAY WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. RAINFALL...IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 7 INCHES IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 10 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN. STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN THE WARNING AREA. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/BRENNAN |
