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| #451796 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:00 AM 21.Aug.2011) TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011 500 AM AST SUN AUG 21 2011 ...IRENE LASHING THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS WITH SQUALLS AND HEAVY RAINS... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.4N 61.3W ABOUT 10 MI...15 KM NE OF GUADELOUPE ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM SE OF ANTIGUA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO WESTWARD TO THE HAITI BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE HAITI BORDER EASTWARD TO NORTH OF CABO ENGANO. A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...AND CULEBRA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF HAITI. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO WESTWARD TO THE HAITI BORDER A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...AND CULEBRA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUERTO RICO...U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...VIEQUES...AND CULEBRA * SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...AND ST. MAARTEN * DOMINICA * ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...ANGUILLA...MONTSERRAT * BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS * NORTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE HAITI BORDER EASTWARD TO NORTH OF CABO ENGANO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * HAITI TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS AND IN THE VIRGIN ISLANDS LATER TODAY. HURRICANE CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR ON PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...AND CULEBRA TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...AND ARE EXPECTED IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 36 TO 48 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES... INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...REPORTS FROM RADAR...SATELLITE...AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IRENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.3 WEST. IRENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 21 MPH...33 KM/H...AND A MOTION TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST AT A SLOWER RATE OF SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...IRENE WILL PASS THROUGH THE LEEWARD ISLANDS THIS MORNING...AND MOVE INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA THIS AFTERNOON. IRENE COULD APPROACH PUERTO RICO AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ON MONDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND IRENE COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY MONDAY. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES... 240 KM...MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS LATER TODAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN THIS AFTERNOON IN THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER PUERTO RICO AND ST. CROIX TONIGHT...AND ARE EXPECTED OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BY LATE MONDAY WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. RAINFALL...IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 7 INCHES IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 10 INCHES. TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN. STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS EXPECTED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 AM AST. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER STEWART |
