Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane Center - Tracking Storms since 1995Hurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995
The Atlantic is quiet
|
Show Selection: |
| #451848 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:46 AM 21.Aug.2011) TCDAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION HARVEY DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082011 1000 AM CDT SUN AUG 21 2011 SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE INTENSITY AND COVERAGE OF DEEP CONVECTION ACCOMPANYING HARVEY HAS CONTINUED TO DECREASE DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. HOWEVER...THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION REMAINS FAIRLY WELL DEFINED AND IS LOCATED NEAR THE WESTERN EDGE OF A SMALL CLUSTER OF REMAINING CONVECTION. THE CENTER OF HARVEY SEEMS TO HAVE AVOIDED THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF GUATEMALA AND SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO... WHICH MAY HAVE ALLOWED IT TO SURVIVE LONGER. THE ESTIMATED MOTION IS 280/12. HARVEY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING ON A GENERALLY WESTWARD COURSE UNTIL DISSIPATION IN ABOUT 24 TO 36 HOURS. ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS HARVEY OVER LAND...THE ECMWF/GFS SOLUTIONS ARE THE FARTHEST NORTH AND SUGGEST A SLIM CHANCE THAT THE CENTER COULD BRIEFLY PASS OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE. EVEN IF THIS WERE TO OCCUR...NO SIGNIFICANT REGENERATION IS EXPECTED. THE OFFICIAL NHC TRACK IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND LIES ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...TO THE NORTH OF THE MULTI-MODEL TVCN CONSENSUS. HEAVY RAINS IN ASSOCIATION WITH HARVEY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING...ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/1500Z 17.7N 92.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 12H 22/0000Z 18.1N 94.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND 24H 22/1200Z 18.3N 95.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND 36H 23/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN |
