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| #451850 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:58 AM 21.Aug.2011) TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011 1100 AM AST SUN AUG 21 2011 THE CLOUD PATTERN OF IRENE IS CHARACTERIZED BY WELL-DEFINED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THE STORM STILL LACKS MUCH DEEP CONVECTION...OR STRONG WINDS...OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION. AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING IRENE MEASURED PEAK 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 53 KT SO FAR...WHICH SUPPORTS KEEPING THE INTENSITY AT 45 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. SINCE AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS ESTABLISHED OVER THE TROPICAL CYCLONE AND THE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING OVER WARM WATERS...INTENSIFICATION SEEMS LIKELY AND IRENE IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY THE TIME IT REACHES HISPANIOLA. AFTER THAT...THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SUBJECT TO MORE THAN THE USUAL LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY...AS IT DEPENDS VERY MUCH ON HOW IRENE WILL INTERACT WITH THE MOUNTAINOUS LAND MASSES OF HISPANIOLA AND EASTERN CUBA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. IF THE CENTER MOVES MORE OVER THE WATER THAN INDICATED IN THE CURRENT FORECAST...IRENE WILL LIKELY BECOME STRONGER THAN SHOWN HERE. THE STORM IS BEING STEERED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...285/17...BY THE FLOW ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...A COUPLE OF TROUGHS ARE FORECAST TO CREATE A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE NEAR THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST...WHICH SHOULD INDUCE A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF SPREAD IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS...ESPECIALLY AT DAYS 4 TO 5. FOR EXAMPLE...THE GFDL MODEL TAKES IRENE TO THE WEST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WHILE THE HWRF MODEL TAKES IT THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. INTERESTS IN FLORIDA ARE ADVISED NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK BECAUSE OF THE INHERENT UNCERTAINTIES IN LONGER-RANGE FORECASTS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/1500Z 17.0N 63.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 22/0000Z 17.5N 65.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 22/1200Z 18.2N 68.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 23/0000Z 18.9N 70.9W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 48H 23/1200Z 19.6N 73.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 72H 24/1200Z 21.5N 76.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER WATER 96H 25/1200Z 24.0N 79.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 26/1200Z 27.0N 81.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND $$ FORECASTER PASCH |
