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| #451989 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:45 PM 21.Aug.2011) TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION HARVEY ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082011 400 PM CDT SUN AUG 21 2011 ...HARVEY EMERGES OVER THE SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.6N 93.8W ABOUT 50 MI...75 KM NE OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO ABOUT 285 MI...460 KM SE OF TUXPAN MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO FROM PUNTA EL LAGARTO NORTHWARD TO BARRA DE NAUTIA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO FROM PUNTA EL LAGARTO TO BARRA DE NAUTIA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION HARVEY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.8 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF HARVEY WILL MOVE INLAND OVER THE MEXICAN STATE OF VERACRUZ ON MONDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED...AND HARVEY IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BEFORE MOVING INLAND OVER MEXICO. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...HARVEY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN STATES OF VERACRUZ...OAXACA...HIDALGO...PUEBLA...AND TIAXCALA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES... ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN. WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO WITH THE WARNING AREA MONDAY MORNING. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...700 PM CDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 PM CDT. $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BRENNAN |
