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| #451998 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:48 PM 21.Aug.2011) TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011 500 PM AST SUN AUG 21 2011 IRENE IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED IN ITS APPEARANCE ON SATELLITE IMAGES...WITH CURVED BANDS BECOMING BETTER DEFINED. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS HELD AT 45 KT IN ACCORDANCE WITH OBSERVATIONS EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS. ANOTHER HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE IRENE AROUND 0000 UTC. WITH A WELL-DEFINED UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW ANTICYCLONE SITUATED OVER THE STORM...THE PRIMARY IMPEDIMENT TO STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS SHOULD BE LAND INTERACTION. IF IRENE MOVES OVER MORE OF HISPANIOLA OR OVER PARTS OF EASTERN CUBA IT WILL LIKELY BE WEAKER THAN INDICATED HERE...HOWEVER IF THE SYSTEM ENDS UP MOVING TO THE NORTH OF BOTH OF THOSE LAND MASSES IT COULD STRENGTHEN MORE THAN EXPECTED. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SOMEWHAT HIGHER THAN THE LATEST LGEM STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE. THE FORWARD MOTION HAS SLOWED A BIT AND IS NOW NEAR 285/15. IRENE CONTINUES TO BE STEERED BY THE FLOW ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE FOR 1 TO 2 DAYS WHICH WOULD BRING THE CENTER NEAR OR OVER PUERTO RICO...AND NEAR OR OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...A COUPLE OF TROUGHS ARE FORECAST TO CREATE A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE NEAR THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST WHICH SHOULD INDUCE A TURN TO THE RIGHT AROUND DAY 3. SEVERAL OF THE RELIABLE TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS SUCH AS THE ECMWF AND GFS HAVE SHIFTED EASTWARD FROM THEIR PREVIOUS RUNS AND SO HAS THE DYNAMICAL CONSENSUS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THAT FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND LIES ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. IT IS IMPORTANT NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK...ESPECIALLY AT DAYS 4 TO 5 SINCE THE MOST RECENT 5-YEAR AVERAGE ERRORS AT THOSE FORECAST TIMES ARE 200 AND 250 MILES RESPECTIVELY. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/2100Z 17.7N 64.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 22/0600Z 18.2N 66.6W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND 24H 22/1800Z 18.9N 69.3W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND 36H 23/0600Z 19.6N 71.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 48H 23/1800Z 20.3N 73.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER WATER 72H 24/1800Z 22.7N 76.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 25/1800Z 25.5N 79.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 26/1800Z 28.5N 81.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND $$ FORECASTER PASCH |
