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#452127 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:46 PM 21.Aug.2011) TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION HARVEY ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082011 1000 PM CDT SUN AUG 21 2011 ...HEAVY RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH HARVEY ARE SPREADING WESTWARD OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.0N 95.0W ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM NW OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO ABOUT 210 MI...335 KM SE OF TUXPAN MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO FROM PUNTA EL LAGARTO TO BARRA DE NAUTLA FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION HARVEY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.0 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H. A TURN TO THE WEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...HARVEY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO MONDAY MORNING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE...AND HARVEY COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BEFORE MOVING INLAND OVER MEXICO. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...HARVEY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN STATES OF VERACRUZ...OAXACA...HIDALGO...PUEBLA...AND TIAXCALA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES... ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN. WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN A PORTION OF THE WARNING AREA OVERNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...100 AM CDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 AM CDT. $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BROWN |