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| #452130 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:52 PM 21.Aug.2011) TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011 1100 PM AST SUN AUG 21 2011 ...IRENE STRENGTHENING AS IT APPROACHES PUERTO RICO... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.9N 65.5W ABOUT 50 MI...75 KM WNW OF ST. CROIX ABOUT 50 MI...85 KM SE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.32 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS CHANGED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH TO A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ST. MARTIN AND ST. BARTHELEMY. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...AND CULEBRA * THE ENTIRE COASTLINE OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS * CENTRAL BAHAMAS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS * BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS * HAITI * SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IRENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.5 WEST. IRENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/H. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THE FORECAST TRACK THE CENTER OF IRENE WILL MOVE NEAR OR OVER PUERTO RICO TONIGHT AND NEAR OR OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS STILL POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...AND IRENE COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE MOVING OVER PUERTO RICO IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SOME WEAKENING IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS THE CENTER MOVES NEAR OR OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. SOME RESTRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY AFTER THE CENTER MOVES OVER WATER. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES...240 KM FROM THE CENTER. A STATION AT SALT RIVER BAY ON ST. CROIX RECENTLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 47 MPH...76 KM/H...AND A GUST TO 57 MPH...92 KM/H. ROOSEVELT ROADS NAVAL STATION ON PUERTO RICO RECENTLY REPORTED A WIND GUST TO 45 MPH...72 KM/H. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 993 MB...29.32 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING OR IMMINENT IN THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...EASTERN PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA AND VIEQUES...AND WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS PUERTO RICO TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL REACH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC EARLY MONDAY. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES AND CULEBRA TONIGHT...AND OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ON MONDAY. THE HIGHEST WINDS ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR OVER AREAS OF ELEVATED TERRAIN. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS TUESDAY...AND ARE POSSIBLE IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS BY LATE TUESDAY. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS BY TUESDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL...IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ACROSS PUERTO RICO...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...HAITI...THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN. STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA. A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST OF PUERTO RICO...AS WELL AS IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM AST. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN |
