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| #452155 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:05 AM 22.Aug.2011) TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM IRENE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 6A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011 100 AM AST MON AUG 22 2011 ...IRENE BEARING DOWN ON EASTERN PUERTO RICO... SUMMARY OF 100 AM AST...0500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.0N 65.7W ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM SE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM WNW OF ST. CROIX MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.20 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...AND CULEBRA * THE ENTIRE COASTLINE OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS * CENTRAL BAHAMAS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS * BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS * HAITI * SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 100 AM AST...0500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IRENE WAS LOCATED BY DOPPLER RADAR TO BE NEAR LATITUDE 18.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.7 WEST. IRENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH... 24 KM/H. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THE FORECAST TRACK THE CENTER OF IRENE WILL MOVE NEAR OR OVER PUERTO RICO THIS MORNING AND NEAR OR OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. DATA FROM THE SAN JUAN FAA DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS STILL POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...AND IRENE COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE MOVING OVER PUERTO RICO IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. SOME WEAKENING IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS THE CENTER MOVES NEAR OR OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. SOME RESTRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY AFTER THE CENTER MOVES BACK OVER WATER. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES...240 KM FROM THE CENTER. A WIND GUST TO 52 MPH...83 KM/H...WAS RECENTLY REPORTED ON ST. THOMAS AND CULEBRA. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 989 MB...29.20 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING OR IMMINENT IN THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...EASTERN PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA AND VIEQUES...AND WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS PUERTO RICO THIS MORNING. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL REACH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BY THIS AFTERNOON. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER PUERTO RICO... VIEQUES...AND CULEBRA THIS MORNING...AND OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE HIGHEST WINDS ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR OVER AREAS OF ELEVATED TERRAIN. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS TUESDAY...AND ARE POSSIBLE IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS BY LATE TUESDAY. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS BY TUESDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL...IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ACROSS PUERTO RICO...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...HAITI...THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN. STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA. A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST OF PUERTO RICO...AS WELL AS IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...300 AM AST. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER STEWART/BERG |
