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| #452175 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:58 AM 22.Aug.2011) TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM IRENE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 6B NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011 300 AM AST MON AUG 22 2011 ...IRENE MOVING ACROSS EASTERN PUERTO RICO JUST BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH... SUMMARY OF 300 AM AST...0700 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.3N 66.1W ABOUT 10 MI...20 KM SW OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM ESE OF AGUADILLA PUERTO RICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.20 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS CHANGED THE HURRICANE WARNING TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...AND CULEBRA * NORTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE HAITI BORDER EASTWARD TO CABO ENGANO A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS * CENTRAL BAHAMAS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS * BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS * SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM SOUTH OF CABO ENGANO WESTWARD TO THE HAITI BORDER * HAITI * SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 300 AM AST...0700 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IRENE WAS LOCATED BY FAA DOPPLER RADAR TO BE INLAND OVER PUERTO RICO NEAR LATITUDE 18.3 NORTH... LONGITUDE 66.1 WEST. IRENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH... 24 KM/H. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THE FORECAST TRACK THE CENTER OF IRENE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER PUERTO RICO THIS MORNING...AND MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE NORTHERN COASTAL REGIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. DATA FROM THE SAN JUAN FAA DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS STILL POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...AND IRENE COULD STILL BECOME A HURRICANE WHILE OVER PUERTO RICO DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SOME WEAKENING IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS THE CENTER MOVES NEAR OR OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. SOME RESTRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY AFTER THE CENTER MOVES BACK OVER WATER. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES...240 KM FROM THE CENTER. DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...A SUSTAINED WIND OF 54 MPH...87 KM/H WITH A GUST TO 76 MPH...122 KM/H...WAS REPORTED ON VIEQUES ISLAND PUERTO RICO...AND A SUSTAINED WIND OF 41 MPH...67 KM/H WITH A GUST TO 59 MPH...94 KM/H...WAS REPORTED AT SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 989 MB...29.20 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING IN THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...EASTERN PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA AND VIEQUES...AND WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS PUERTO RICO THIS MORNING. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL REACH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BY THIS AFTERNOON. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...AND CULEBRA THIS MORNING...AND OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE HIGHEST WINDS ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR OVER AREAS OF ELEVATED TERRAIN. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS TUESDAY...AND ARE POSSIBLE IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS BY LATE TUESDAY. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS BY TUESDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL...IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ACROSS PUERTO RICO...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...HAITI...THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN. STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE ENTIRE COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST OF PUERTO RICO...AS WELL AS IN THE REMAINDER OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA. NEAR THE COAST... THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER STEWART/BERG |
