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| #452428 (Received by flhurricane at: 8:31 PM 22.Aug.2011) TCDAT4 HURRICANE IRENE SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011 830 PM AST MON AUG 22 2011 THE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FOUND A 850-MB FLIGHT LEVEL WIND MAXIMUM OF 106 KT ON ITS FIRST PASS THROUGH THE CENTER OF IRENE. BASED ON THIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ADJUSTED UPWARD TO 85 KT. OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF THE HURRICANE HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE...ALTHOUGH NO EYE IS VISIBLE YET IN GEOSTATIONARY IMAGERY. HOWEVER...AN EYE HAS BECOME APPARENT ON THE SAN JUAN DOPPLER RADAR AND WAS ALSO SEEN IN A 2230 UTC SSMIS PASS. THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS FALLEN TO 981 MB BASED ON A DROPSONDE OBSERVATION OF 982 MB WITH 10 KT OF WIND AT THE SURFACE. GIVEN THAT THE ENVIRONMENT APPEARS CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING...THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD BY 15 KT THROUGH 36 HOURS WITH A SMALLER UPWARD ADJUSTMENT AT 48 AND 72 HOURS. ONLY SLIGHT WEAKENING IS INDICATED AT DAYS 4 AND 5. THE NEW FORECAST NOW SHOWS IRENE BECOMING A MAJOR HURRICANE ON TUESDAY AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. THE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN EXPANDED BASED ON AIRCRAFT DATA AND THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST. NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE TRACK FORECAST ON THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0030Z 19.7N 68.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 23/0600Z 20.1N 70.2W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 23/1800Z 20.8N 72.5W 105 KT 120 MPH 36H 24/0600Z 21.5N 74.0W 110 KT 125 MPH 48H 24/1800Z 23.0N 75.5W 110 KT 125 MPH 72H 25/1800Z 26.0N 78.0W 110 KT 125 MPH 96H 26/1800Z 29.5N 79.0W 105 KT 120 MPH 120H 27/1800Z 34.0N 79.0W 95 KT 110 MPH...INLAND $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN |
