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| #452462 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:59 PM 22.Aug.2011) TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011 1100 PM AST MON AUG 22 2011 ...CENTER OF IRENE JUST NORTH OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS TUESDAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.9N 69.2W ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM SE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND ABOUT 100 MI...155 KM E OF PUERTO PLATA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...160 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE HAITI BORDER EASTWARD TO CABO ENGANO * TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH COAST OF HAITI FROM LE MOLE ST. NICHOLAS EASTWARD TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER * NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM SANTO DOMINGO EASTWARD TO CABO ENGANO * ALL OF HAITI FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS LOCATED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT NEAR LATITUDE 19.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.2 WEST. IRENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF IRENE WILL MOVE JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI TONIGHT...NEAR OR OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS ON TUESDAY...AND NEAR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS EARLY WEDNESDAY. DATA FROM THE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IRENE IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND IRENE COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE ON TUESDAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185 MILES...295 KM. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON DATA FROM THE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 980 MB...28.94 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TONIGHT AND LOCALIZED HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. THE HIGHEST WINDS ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR OVER AREAS OF ELEVATED TERRAIN. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS TUESDAY MORNING WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUESDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS BY TUESDAY NIGHT WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS BY LATE WEDNESDAY...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY THURSDAY. RAINFALL...IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER NORTHERN HISPANIOLA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 10 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 9 TO 13 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. STORM SURGE WILL ALSO RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE ENTIRE COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM AST. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN/CANGIALOSI |
