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| #452694 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:58 PM 23.Aug.2011) TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011 500 PM EDT TUE AUG 23 2011 ...IRENE LASHING THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.9N 71.5W ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM SSW OF GRAND TURK ISLAND ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM E OF GREAT INAGUA ISLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...28.82 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE NORTH COAST OF HAITI HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE NORTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS * THE SOUTHEASTERN...CENTRAL...AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH COAST OF HAITI FROM LE MOLE ST. NICHOLAS EASTWARD TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.5 WEST. IRENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF IRENE WILL MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS THIS EVENING...NEAR OR OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AND NEAR OR OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS ON THURSDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IRENE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND IRENE COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES...65 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 976 MB...28.82 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS THIS EVENING. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS THIS EVENING WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS LATE TONIGHT WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS BY LATE WEDNESDAY...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY THURSDAY. STORM SURGE...IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW NEAR THE CENTER OF IRENE...AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 7 TO 11 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS OVER THE BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES. A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF HAITI. RAINFALL...IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS PUERTO RICO. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER NORTHERN HISPANIOLA... WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 15 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM EDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT. $$ FORECASTER BROWN |
