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| #452759 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:00 PM 23.Aug.2011) TCDAT4 HURRICANE IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011 1100 PM EDT TUE AUG 23 2011 IT IS FORTUNATE THAT WE HAVE A NOAA HIGH ALTITUDE JET SAMPLING THE ENVIRONMENT OF IRENE AND TWO HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT...ONE FROM NOAA AND THE OTHER FROM THE AIR FORCE...IN THE EYE OF THE HURRICANE TONIGHT. THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS IMPROVED WITH A RAGGED EYE EMBEDDED IN DEEP CONVECTION AND A WELL ESTABLISHED OUTFLOW. THIS HAS RESULTED IN THE INCREASE OF BOTH OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS. THE CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED FROM BOTH PLANES HAS COME DOWN TO 969 MB AND THE MAX FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND MEASURED WAS 101 KNOTS. HOWEVER...DATA FROM THE SFMR INDICATE THAT THE SURFACE WINDS HAVE NOT INCREASED YET AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 80 KNOTS. IRENE WILL BE TRAVERSING VERY WARM WATERS AND ALTHOUGH THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT IDEAL FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION...THE OVERALL CONDITIONS FAVOR STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS INDICATED IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND IRENE IS EXPECTED TO BE A MAJOR HURRICANE AS IT MOVES OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS IN ABOUT A DAY. SATELLITE AND RECONNAISSANCE FIXES INDICATE THAT IRENE IS STILL MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT A SLOW PACE OF 8 KNOTS. SINCE THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE IN THE EXPECTED EVOLUTION OF THE STEERING PATTERN...THERE IS NO REASON TO MODIFY THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST WHICH BRINGS THE HURRICANE NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE BAHAMAS...AND THEN NORTHWARD PARALLELING THE UNITED STATES SOUTHEAST COAST AND VERY CLOSE TO OR OVER THE OUTER BANKS. IRENE SHOULD CONTINUE NORTHWARD OR NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT TONIGHT AND EVEN THE STUBBORN GFDL WHICH PREVIOUSLY INSISTED ON BRINGING IRENE TOWARD FLORIDA HAS NOW SHIFTED EASTWARD AND HAS JOINED THE OTHER DYNAMICAL MODELS. THIS INCREASES THE CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST EVEN MORE. USERS ARE REMINDED THAT LARGE FORECAST ERRORS ARE POSSIBLE AT THE LONGER LEAD TIMES. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0300Z 21.3N 72.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 24/1200Z 22.0N 73.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 25/0000Z 23.5N 75.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 25/1200Z 25.5N 76.5W 105 KT 120 MPH 48H 26/0000Z 27.5N 77.0W 110 KT 125 MPH 72H 27/0000Z 31.0N 77.0W 110 KT 125 MPH 96H 28/0000Z 36.0N 76.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 120H 29/0000Z 40.5N 73.5W 75 KT 85 MPH $$ FORECASTER AVILA |
