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| #452761 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:03 PM 23.Aug.2011) TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011 1100 PM EDT TUE AUG 23 2011 ...WEATHER RAPIDLY DETERIORATING IN THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AS HURRICANE IRENE APPROACHES... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.3N 72.4W ABOUT 410 MI...655 KM SE OF NASSAU ABOUT 980 MI...1575 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...969 MB...28.61 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS * THE SOUTHEASTERN...CENTRAL...AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH COAST OF HAITI FROM LE MOLE ST. NICHOLAS EASTWARD TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA ...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.4 WEST. IRENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF IRENE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS ON WEDNESDAY AND THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS ON THURSDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IRENE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AND IRENE COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES...65 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM. LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY BOTH AIR FORCE AND NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER PLANES WAS 969 MB...28.61 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE PROBABLY SPREADING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS ON WEDNESDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS BY LATE WEDNESDAY...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY THURSDAY. STORM SURGE...IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW NEAR THE CENTER OF IRENE...AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 7 TO 11 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...AND BY AS MUCH AS 5 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES. A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF HAITI. RAINFALL...IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA. ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH IRENE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN THE BAHAMAS...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM EDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT. $$ FORECASTER AVILA/CANGIALOSI |
