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| #452917 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:46 PM 24.Aug.2011) TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE IRENE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 17A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011 200 PM EDT WED AUG 24 2011 ...IRENE A LITTLE STRONGER...EYE OVER CROOKED ISLAND... SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.7N 74.3W ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM SE OF LONG ISLAND BAHAMAS ABOUT 250 MI...405 KM SE OF NASSAU MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...954 MB...28.17 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE SOUTHEASTERN...CENTRAL...AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS INTERESTS IN EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IRENE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.3 WEST. IRENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTH ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF IRENE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS THROUGH TONIGHT AND OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS ON THURSDAY. DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 120 MPH... 195 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IRENE IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AND IRENE COULD BECOME A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE BY THURSDAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 954 MB...28.17 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE NOW SPREADING OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS BY LATE TONIGHT...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY. STORM SURGE...IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS NEAR THE CENTER OF IRENE...AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 7 TO 11 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS OVER THE BAHAMAS. A STORM SURGE OF 5 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS ALSO POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES. RAINFALL...IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS HISPANIOLA WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN THE BAHAMAS...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT. $$ FORECASTER BROWN |
