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| #453034 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:00 PM 24.Aug.2011) TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011 1100 PM EDT WED AUG 24 2011 ...HURRICANE IRENE DANGEROUSLY APPROACHING THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.8N 75.4W ABOUT 790 MI...1270 KM S OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA ABOUT 150 MI...245 KM ESE OF NASSAU MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...952 MB...28.11 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE SOUTHEASTERN...CENTRAL...AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS INTERESTS FROM THE CAROLINAS NORTHWARD THROUGH NEW ENGLAND SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IRENE. HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS EARLY THURSDAY. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.4 WEST. IRENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND THEN TOWARD THE NORTH ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF IRENE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND MOVE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS ON THURSDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 120 MPH...195 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IRENE IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...BUT SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. IRENE COULD BECOME A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THURSDAY. IRENE IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 255 MILES...410 KM. A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE ESTIMATED A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 952 MB...28.11 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE STILL OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN AND THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY BEGIN TO INCREASE IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...REACHING HURRICANE FORCE BY THURSDAY. STORM SURGE...IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS NEAR THE CENTER OF IRENE... AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 7 TO 11 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS OVER THE BAHAMAS. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES. RAINFALL...IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES OVER THE BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS. RAINS WILL BE DIMINISHING ACROSS THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS WITH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE...BRINGING THE MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL TO 6 TO 12 INCHES. SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY IRENE WILL BEGIN AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES ON THURSDAY. THESE SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM EDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT. $$ FORECASTER AVILA |
