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| #453053 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:46 AM 25.Aug.2011) TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE IRENE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 19A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011 200 AM EDT THU AUG 25 2011 ...EYE OF DANGEROUS HURRICANE IRENE NEARING THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS... SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.2N 76.0W ABOUT 105 MI...165 KM ESE OF NASSAU ABOUT 760 MI...1225 KM S OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.05 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE SOUTHEASTERN...CENTRAL...AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS INTERESTS FROM THE CAROLINAS NORTHWARD THROUGH NEW ENGLAND SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IRENE. HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS THIS MORNING. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS LOCATED BY AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT NEAR LATITUDE 24.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.0 WEST. IRENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH TONIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL MOVE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS TODAY...AND PASS WELL OFFSHORE OF THE EAST COAST OF CENTRAL AND NORTH FLORIDA TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED SLIGHTLY TO NEAR 115 MPH...185 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IRENE IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. IRENE IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL- STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 255 MILES...410 KM. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS WAS 950 MB...28.05 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE STILL OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN AND THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. WINDS WILL INCREASE IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...REACHING HURRICANE FORCE LATER TODAY. STORM SURGE...IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS NEAR THE CENTER OF IRENE... AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 7 TO 11 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS OVER THE BAHAMAS. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES. RAINFALL...IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES OVER THE BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS. RAINS WILL BE DIMINISHING ACROSS THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS WITH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE...BRINGING THE MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL TO 6 TO 12 INCHES. SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY IRENE WILL BEGIN AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES ON THURSDAY. THESE SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT. $$ FORECASTER PASCH |
