Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane Center - Tracking Storms since 1995Hurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995
The Atlantic is quiet
|
Show Selection: |
| #453183 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:58 AM 25.Aug.2011) TCDAT4 HURRICANE IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011 1100 AM EDT THU AUG 25 2011 IT HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE WHETHER THE HURRICANE HAS GONE THROUGH AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT. ALTHOUGH THE RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WIND IS LARGER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY...MICROWAVE AND AIRCRAFT DATA HAVE NOT BEEN VERY CONCLUSIVE. RECENT DATA DO NOT SHOW ANY EVIDENCE OF A SECONDARY EYEWALL AT THIS TIME. THE EYE IS A LITTLE MORE EVIDENT IN THE LAST FEW VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES...BUT IS NOT AS CLEAR AS IT WAS YESTERDAY MORNING. THE AIR FORCE AIRCRAFT HAS MEASURED A PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 112 KT AND SFMR WINDS OF 90 KT...WHICH ROUGHLY SUPPORT THE 100-KT INITIAL INTENSITY. CENTER FIXES FROM THE AIRCRAFT OVERNIGHT AND THIS MORNING INDICATE THAT THE EXPECTED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TURN HAS OCCURRED. A NORTHWARD TURN IS EXPECTED TONIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY AS IRENE MOVES THROUGH A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION IS EXPECTED TO THEN TURN IRENE TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BYPASS IRENE...LEAVING THE HURRICANE IN DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN A TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES AND A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC. THIS PATTERN WILL LIKELY KEEP THE HURRICANE VERY NEAR THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE WESTWARD ON THIS CYCLE...AND THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK HAS BEEN NUDGED WEST AS WELL. THE NEW FORECAST LIES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF...AND IS A LITTLE RIGHT OF THE TVCA CONSENSUS. SINCE IRENE IS SUCH A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE...SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ARE LIKELY ALONG THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK IT TAKES. THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS CONDUCIVE FOR SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THE MAIN INFLUENCING FACTOR DURING THE SHORT TERM WILL LIKELY BE EYEWALL CYCLES WHICH ARE DIFFICULT TO PREDICT. AFTER 48 HOURS...SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE WHICH WILL LIKELY START WEAKENING PROCESS. HOWEVER... SINCE IRENE HAS SUCH A LARGE AND INTENSE CIRCULATION...IT WILL PROBABLY BE RATHER SLOW TO WEAKEN. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/1500Z 25.9N 76.8W 100 KT 115 MPH 12H 26/0000Z 27.5N 77.5W 105 KT 120 MPH 24H 26/1200Z 29.5N 77.8W 110 KT 125 MPH 36H 27/0000Z 31.4N 77.5W 105 KT 120 MPH 48H 27/1200Z 33.3N 77.1W 100 KT 115 MPH 72H 28/1200Z 37.8N 75.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 29/1200Z 45.0N 71.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND 120H 30/1200Z 54.0N 64.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ FORECASTER BROWN |
