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| #453293 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:52 PM 25.Aug.2011) TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011 500 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2011 ...IRENE STILL BATTERING ABACO ISLAND...NEW WATCHES AND WARNINGS ISSUED FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.0N 77.3W ABOUT 575 MI...930 KM S OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.05 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA FROM EDISTO BEACH NORTHWARD TO LITTLE RIVER INLET. A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA FROM LITTLE RIVER INLET NORTHWARD TO THE VIRGINIA BORDER... INCLUDING THE PAMLICO...ALBEMARLE...AND CURRITUCK SOUNDS A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES FROM THE VIRGINIA/NORTH CAROLINA BORDER NORTHWARD TO SANDY HOOK NEW JERSEY...INCLUDING DELAWARE BAY...AND THE CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF SMITH POINT. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SMITH POINT NORTHWARD AND THE TIDAL POTOMAC. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS * THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA FROM LITTLE RIVER INLET NORTHWARD TO THE VIRGINIA BORDER...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO...ALBEMARLE...AND CURRITUCK SOUNDS A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE VIRGINIA/NORTH CAROLINA BORDER NORTHWARD TO SANDY HOOK NEW JERSEY...INCLUDING DELAWARE BAY...AND CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF SMITH POINT. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA TO LITTLE RIVER INLET A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SMITH POINT NORTHWARD AND THE TIDAL POTOMAC. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND NEW ENGLAND SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IRENE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.3 WEST. IRENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH BY EARLY FRIDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS TONIGHT...AND PASS WELL OFFSHORE OF THE EAST COAST OF CENTRAL AND NORTH FLORIDA TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA ON SATURDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH...185 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IRENE IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. IRENE IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 290 MILES...465 KM. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS 950 MB...28.05 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE WARNING AREA ALONG THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST BY LATE FRIDAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA BY SATURDAY. STORM SURGE...IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS NEAR THE CENTER OF IRENE...AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 7 TO 11 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. WATER LEVELS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TONIGHT. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES. STORM SURGE...ALONG THE EASTERN COAST OF THE UNITED STATES...AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 5 TO 10 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA INCLUDING THE ABLEMARLE AND PAMLICO SOUNDS. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE...DESTRUCTIVE... AND LIFE-THREATENING WAVES. IRENE ALSO HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT STORM SURGE FLOODING WITHIN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA INCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY...TRIBUTARIES...AND THE EASTERN SHORE. RAINFALL...IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES OVER THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES IS EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND IN THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES ALONG THE PATH OF IRENE. SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY IRENE ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THESE SWELLS WILL CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM EDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT. $$ FORECASTER BROWN |
