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| #453491 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:40 AM 26.Aug.2011) TCDAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102011 500 AM EDT FRI AUG 26 2011 RECENT IR IMAGERY AND AN 0350 UTC AMSR-E PASS SUGGEST THAT THE DEPRESSION IS NOT WELL ORGANIZED...AND THAT THE CIRCULATION IS SOMEWHAT ELONGATED TO THE EAST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. THIS APPEARS TO BE DUE TO CONTINUED NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS AS ANALYZED BY UW-CIMMS AND THE GFS FIELDS IN THE SHIPS MODEL OUTPUT. DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB SUPPORT HOLDING THE INTENSITY AT 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. GIVEN THE CURRENT STRUCTURE OF THE CYCLONE AND THE FACT THAT MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS INCLUDING THE GFDL AND HWRF SHOW LITTLE INTENSIFICATION...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED DOWNWARD AND SHOWS ONLY A BROAD PEAK AT MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY. BEYOND 48 HOURS...INCREASING SHEAR SHOULD RESULT IN WEAKENING TO A REMNANT LOW BY DAY 4 WITH THE CYCLONE DISSIPATING BY DAY 5. IS IS ALSO POSSIBLE THAT VISIBLE IMAGERY WILL REVEAL THAT THE CENTER IS NO LONGER WELL DEFINED...AND IF SO THE CYCLONE COULD DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY. SINCE A CENTER IS DIFFICULT TO IDENTIFY...UNCERTAINTY IN THE INITIAL POSITION REMAINS HIGH. BASED ON SATELLITE FIXES AND CONTINUITY...THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS 295/8. WHILE OVERALL THE SYNOPTIC REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED...A TREND TOWARD A WEAKER CYCLONE SUGGESTS THAT LESS OF A POLEWARD TURN INTO THE MID-LEVEL WEAKNESS WILL OCCUR DURING THE FIRST 2 OR 3 DAYS OF THE PERIOD. THE NHC FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE TOWARD THE TVCA MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH 72 HOURS AND THE SHALLOW BAM AT DAY 4. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/0900Z 14.5N 33.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 26/1800Z 15.1N 34.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 27/0600Z 15.9N 35.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 27/1800Z 16.8N 36.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 28/0600Z 17.8N 37.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 29/0600Z 19.5N 39.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 30/0600Z 21.0N 41.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 31/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN |
