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| #453566 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:40 AM 26.Aug.2011) TCDAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102011 1100 AM EDT FRI AUG 26 2011 A DECREASING BURST OF CONVECTION REMAINS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE DEPRESSION...THOUGH THE CIRCULATION CONTINUES TO BE RATHER ELONGATED FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST. THE DILEMMA WITH THIS SYSTEM IS THAT WHILE THE CENTER IS STRETCHING THE DEFINITION OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE...EARLIER ASCAT DATA SUGGESTED THE CYCLONE WAS NEAR STORM FORCE. GIVEN THE POOR STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM...SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS OF 30 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...AND THE DECLINING CONVECTION...IT IS PROBABLY BEST TO LEAVE IT AS A DEPRESSION AT THIS TIME. IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING...HOWEVER...IF THE CYCLONE WAS A LITTLE STRONGER EARLIER TODAY. WHILE ANALYSES FROM SHIPS AND UW-CIMSS SUGGEST THE SHEAR IS LOWER THAN YESTERDAY...THE DEPRESSION HAS NOT BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED...PROBABLY DUE TO POOR LOW-LEVEL STRUCTURE. AT THIS POINT...GIVEN THAT NONE OF THE GLOBAL OR DYNAMICAL MODELS STRENGTHEN THIS SYSTEM...THE NHC FORECAST WILL SHOW LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY UNTIL THE CYCLONE DECAYS OVER COOLER WATERS IN A FEW DAYS. ANOTHER POSSIBILITY IS THAT THE DEPRESSION COULD DEGENERATE INTO A TROUGH LATER TODAY...AS IT WOULD NOT TAKE MUCH OF A DEGRADATION IN STRUCTURE FOR THAT TO OCCUR. THE INITIAL MOTION IS AN UNCERTAIN 305/7. A MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH SHOULD CONTINUE TO STEER THE DEPRESSION GENERALLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. HOWEVER...WITH THE SYSTEM NOW EXPECTED TO BE WEAKER... LESS OF A NORTHWARD TURN IS FORECAST BY MOST OF THE MODELS. THE NHC FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH 48 HOURS...AND IS SHIFTED LEFTWARD AFTER THAT TIME. THE FORECAST IS WEST OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS...AND IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/1500Z 14.9N 34.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 27/0000Z 15.5N 34.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 27/1200Z 16.4N 35.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 28/0000Z 17.4N 36.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 28/1200Z 18.3N 37.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 29/1200Z 19.5N 40.0W 25 KT 30 MPH 96H 30/1200Z 21.0N 42.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 31/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BLAKE |
