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| #453571 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:48 AM 26.Aug.2011) TCDAT4 HURRICANE IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011 1100 AM EDT FRI AUG 26 2011 DATA FROM NOAA AND AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT SUGGEST THE INTENSITY OF IRENE IS SLIGHTLY LOWER. ALTHOUGH PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS AT 700 MB WERE 111 KT...SFMR AND DROPSONDE OBSERVATIONS INDICATED THAT A HIGHER-THAN-TYPICAL REDUCTION OF THE WIND FROM FLIGHT-LEVEL TO THE SURFACE APPLIES...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 90 KT. GIVEN THE CURRENT STORM STRUCTURE AND PREDICTED ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS...LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AFTER PASSING NORTH CAROLINA...SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE GRADUALLY DECREASING. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN GRADUAL WEAKENING OF THE CYCLONE AS IT MOVES NEAR THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. HOWEVER...IRENE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A LARGE AND DANGEROUS TROPICAL CYCLONE AND HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS...STORM SURGE FLOODING...AND EXTREMELY HEAVY RAINS ALMOST ANYWHERE FROM EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. IRENE IS MOVING NORTHWARD OR 360/12 KT. THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. IRENE SHOULD MOVE NORTHWARD FOR ANOTHER 12 HOURS OR SO....FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AS IT MOVES ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO AND NO CHANGE WAS REQUIRED FROM THE PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST THROUGH 72 HOURS. ONLY A SMALL ADJUSTMENT WAS MADE TO THE HURRICANE WARNING ON THIS ADVISORY. IT IS ANTICIPATED THAT THE HURRICANE WARNING AND WATCH AREAS WILL NEED TO BE EXTENDED NORTHWARD ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/1500Z 30.7N 77.3W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 27/0000Z 32.2N 77.1W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 27/1200Z 34.4N 76.6W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 28/0000Z 36.7N 75.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 28/1200Z 39.5N 74.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 29/1200Z 47.5N 68.8W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND 96H 30/1200Z 55.5N 57.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 31/1200Z 59.0N 38.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ FORECASTER BROWN/BLAKE |
