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| #453654 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:34 PM 26.Aug.2011) TCDAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102011 500 PM AST FRI AUG 26 2011 THE DEPRESSION IS BARELY HOLDING ON TO TROPICAL CYCLONE STATUS. THE CIRCULATION OF THE CYCLONE IS QUITE ELONGATED...WITH SEVERAL SMALLER SWIRLS WITHIN THE CIRCULATION ENVELOPE. CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED AS WELL AND LIES FAR TO THE WEST OF THE CENTER. THE INITIAL WINDS ARE KEPT AT 30 KT BASED ON CI NUMBERS FROM TAFB/SAB...BUT MIGHT BE A LITTLE GENEROUS. THE CENTER HAS BEEN SHIFTED A LITTLE BIT TO THE NORTHEAST BASED ON VISIBLE IMAGES...GIVING A LONGER-TERM MOTION OF ABOUT 315/6. THIS GENERAL TRACK AND SPEED IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE DEPRESSION MOVES INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. A LEFTWARD TURN IS ANTICIPATED AFTER THE CYCLONE BECOMES A SHALLOW SYSTEM. THE NHC FORECAST IS SHIFTED TO THE EAST...MOSTLY BECAUSE OF THE CENTER RELOCATION...BUT REMAINS WEST OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS. GIVEN THE SPRAWLING NATURE OF THIS CIRCULATION...ALONG WITH COOLER SSTS AND INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...NO SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE CYCLONE SHOULD WEAKEN OVER THE WEEKEND DUE TO ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS BECOMING MORE HOSTILE. THE NHC FORECAST IS LOWERED FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH GLOBAL AND DYNAMICAL MODEL FORECAST. THE DEPRESSION SHOULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW WITHIN A FEW DAYS...AND IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING AT ALL IF IT DEGENERATED INTO A TROUGH EVEN SOONER THAN THAT. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/2100Z 15.6N 34.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 27/0600Z 16.3N 34.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 27/1800Z 17.2N 35.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 28/0600Z 18.1N 36.7W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 28/1800Z 18.8N 37.8W 25 KT 30 MPH 72H 29/1800Z 20.0N 40.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 30/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BLAKE |
