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| #45403 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:43 PM 11.Sep.2005) TCDAT1 HURRICANE OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 23 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT SUN SEP 11 2005 DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT OPHELIA REMAINS AS A 65-KNOT HURRICANE. THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN MOVING VERY LITTLE SINCE YESTERDAY AND PROBABLY HAS PRODUCED UPWELLING. NO WONDER THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION RESEMBLES AN EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONE LOCATED WEST-NORTHWEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...WHERE THE OCEAN IS COOL. THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE HOSTILE TO THE CYCLONE...AND WHEN OPHELIA BEGINS TO MOVE...IT COULD ENCOUNTER A LITTLE WARMER OCEAN. THEREFORE...ONLY A VERY SMALL STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH BOTH THE SHIPS AND THE GFDL MODELS WHICH ARE ONLY SHOWING A VERY MODEST INTENSIFICATION. IT APPEARS THAT THE EXPECTED SCENARIO OF A STRONG DEEP LAYER-MEAN HIGH FORMING NORTH OF OPHELIA IS BEGINNING TO MATERIALIZE...AS INDICATED BY THE UPPER-AIR DATA OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. CONSEQUENTLY...OPHELIA HAS BEGUN TO DRIFT WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 240 DEGREES AT 3 KNOTS. THIS WEST-SOUTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED TO BE SHORT-LIVED SINCE THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND SPREAD EASTWARD. THIS PATTERN SHOULD ALLOW THE HURRICANE TO GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH...PAINFULLY SLOWLY...TOWARD THE UNITED STATES COAST WITHIN THE WATCH OR WARNING AREA. THEREAFTER...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BE STEERED NORTHEASTWARD...WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED...BY THE MID-LATITUDE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWED ANOTHER WESTWARD SHIFT IN THE LAST RUN DURING THE EARLY PORTION OF THE FORECAST AND THEY ARE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT THAN YESTERDAY. IN FACT...THE CONSENSUS MODELS WHICH SKIRTED THE COAST IN THE LAST RUN ARE NOW OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS EAST OF THE CONSENSUS MODELS BUT I DO NOT WANT TO SHIFT WESTWARD THE OFFICIAL FORECAST YET...IN CASE THE GUIDANCE SHIFTS BACK TO THE EAST IN THE NEXT RUN. THE GFDL STUBBORNLY INSISTS ON A TRACK MORE TO THE LEFT. BY INSPECTING THE STRENGTH OF THE HIGH NORTH OF OPHELIA...I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THE OFFICIAL TRACK WILL HAVE TO BE SHIFTED WESTWARD A LITTLE BIT MORE FOR THE PORTION BEFORE LANDFALL. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 12/0300Z 31.1N 76.4W 65 KT 12HR VT 12/1200Z 31.2N 77.0W 65 KT 24HR VT 13/0000Z 31.8N 77.5W 65 KT 36HR VT 13/1200Z 32.2N 77.6W 65 KT 48HR VT 14/0000Z 32.9N 77.7W 70 KT 72HR VT 15/0000Z 35.0N 76.6W 70 KT 96HR VT 16/0000Z 38.0N 73.0W 50 KT 120HR VT 17/0000Z 42.0N 68.0W 40 KT |
