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| #454048 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:55 PM 27.Aug.2011) TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE IRENE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 30A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011 700 PM EDT SAT AUG 27 2011 ...IRENE RE-EMERGES OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...WATER LEVELS RISING IN THE VIRGINIA TIDEWATER REGION... SUMMARY OF 700 PM EDT...2300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...36.5N 75.8W ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM SE OF NORFOLK VIRGINIA ABOUT 315 MI...510 KM SSW OF NEW YORK CITY MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.05 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED SOUTH OF SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD TO SAGAMORE BEACH MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO...ALBEMARLE...AND CURRITUCK SOUNDS...DELAWARE BAY...CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF DRUM POINT...NEW YORK CITY...LONG ISLAND...LONG ISLAND SOUND...COASTAL CONNECTICUT AND RHODE ISLAND...BLOCK ISLAND...MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM DRUM POINT NORTHWARD AND THE TIDAL POTOMAC * NORTH OF SAGAMORE BEACH TO EASTPORT MAINE * UNITED STATES/CANADA BORDER NORTHEASTWARD TO FORT LAWRENCE INCLUDING GRAND MANAN * SOUTH COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA FROM FORT LAWRENCE TO PORTERS LAKE INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN EASTERN CANADA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IRENE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 700 PM EDT...2300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 36.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.8 WEST. IRENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION ACCOMPANIED BY A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF IRENE WILL MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT...AND MOVE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY. IRENE IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO EASTERN CANADA SUNDAY NIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IRENE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN A HURRICANE AS IT MOVES NEAR OR OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND APPROACHES NEW ENGLAND. THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AFTER LANDFALL IN NEW ENGLAND AND BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY. IRENE IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 290 MILES...465 KM. A NOAA C-MAN STATION EAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY RECENTLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 61 MPH...WITH A GUST TO 68 MPH. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE GRADUALLY SPREADING NORTHWARD OVER SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA...AND OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA. A STORM SURGE HEIGHT OF ABOUT 4.6 FEET HAS BEEN OBSERVED AT OREGON INLET NORTH CAROLINA...AND A STORM SURGE HEIGHT OF ABOUT 4 FEET HAS OCCURRED SO FAR AT THE MOUTH OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10 TO 14 INCHES HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED OVER A LARGE PORTION OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNT OF 14.00 INCHES REPORTED AT BUNYAN NORTH CAROLINA THUS FAR. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 950 MB...28.05 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST THIS EVENING WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE THIS EVENING WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS AFFECTING THE UPPER FLOORS OF HIGH-RISE BUILDINGS WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER THAN THOSE NEAR GROUND-LEVEL. STORM SURGE...AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM TIDE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 5 TO 9 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA IN NORTH CAROLINA...INCLUDING THE ALBEMARLE AND PAMLICO SOUNDS. STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 4 TO 8 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA FROM THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER NORTHWARD TO CAPE COD INCLUDING SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND ITS TRIBUTARIES. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE...DESTRUCTIVE...AND LIFE-THREATENING WAVES. HIGHER THAN NORMAL ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE OCCURRING THIS WEEKEND. COASTAL AND RIVER FLOODING WILL BE HIGHEST IN AREAS WHERE THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE. STORM TIDE AND SURGE VALUES ARE VERY LOCATION-SPECIFIC...AND USERS ARE URGED TO CONSULT PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THEIR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES. RAINFALL...IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES...FROM EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES INTO EASTERN NEW YORK AND INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND. THESE RAINS... COMBINED WITH HEAVY RAINS OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS...COULD CAUSE WIDESPREAD FLOODING...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS...AND SIGNIFICANT UPROOTING OF TREES DUE TO RAIN-SOFTENED GROUNDS. SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY IRENE ARE AFFECTING MUCH OF THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. THESE SWELLS WILL CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST OF MARYLAND...DELAWARE...AND NEW JERSEY THROUGH TONIGHT. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...900 PM EDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT. $$ FORECASTER STEWART/BERG |
