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| #454202 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:43 AM 28.Aug.2011) TCDAT4 HURRICANE IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 32 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011 500 AM EDT SUN AUG 28 2011 SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOW THAT DRY AIR IS NOW WRAPPING INTO MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF IRENE...AND THE CYCLONE IS SLOWLY BEGINNING TO FILL AS MEASUREMENTS FROM THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT SHOW THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE IS UP TO 958 MB. BASED ON DROPSONDE AND SFMR DATA SHOWING THAT SURFACE WINDS HAVE CONTINUED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 65 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. DESPITE THE GRADUAL WEAKENING OF THE CYCLONE...THE OUTER WIND FIELD CONTINUES TO EXPAND...WITH 34-KT WINDS OCCURRING FROM NEW YORK CITY SOUTHWARD TO NORTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. IRENE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH UNTIL IT MOVES INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATER TODAY... AND IT WILL ONLY TAKE MODEST CONVECTION TO BRING DOWN STRONGER WINDS ALOFT TO THE SURFACE AS SUSTAINED HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS OR GUSTS. SLOW WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AFTER LANDFALL AS IRENE BECOMES A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 020/16...AS IRENE CONTINUES TO ACCELERATE TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...IRENE WILL MERGE INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AND ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD OVER EASTERN CANADA AND INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC. THE TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY PACKED...BUT HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT IN THE VERY SHORT TERM. THE NEW NHC TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED IN THAT DIRECTION AND IS CLOSE TO THE ECMWF THROUGH 24 HOURS. AFTER EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION THE NHC FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE GFS...ECMWF...AND UKMET. NOTE...MORE SO THAN WITH MOST STORMS...THE WINDS WITH IRENE INCREASE SHARPLY WITH HEIGHT ABOVE THE SURFACE. AS IRENE MOVES THROUGH AREAS WITH HIGH-RISE STRUCTURES...THESE BUILDINGS COULD EXPERIENCE WINDS SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER THAN THE SURFACE WINDS. WINDS AT THE 30-STORY LEVEL WILL LIKELY BE 20 PERCENT HIGHER THAN AT THE SURFACE...AND WINDS 80-100 STORIES UP COULD BE ABOUT 30 PERCENT HIGHER THAN AT THE SURFACE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/0900Z 39.2N 74.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 28/1800Z 41.8N 73.2W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND 24H 29/0600Z 46.0N 70.4W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 29/1800Z 50.6N 66.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 30/0600Z 54.0N 59.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 31/0600Z 58.0N 44.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 01/0600Z 61.0N 31.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 02/0600Z 62.0N 28.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN |
