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| #454309 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:00 AM 28.Aug.2011) TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 33 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011 1100 AM EDT SUN AUG 28 2011 SURFACE AND RADAR DATA INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF IRENE IS MOVING JUST TO THE WEST OF CONNECTICUT. THE FORWARD MOTION HAS ACCELERATED TO NEAR 020/23...AND SOME ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED AS THE STORM MOVES ON THE EAST SIDE OF A BROAD MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO...BUT SLIGHTLY WEST OF...THE PREVIOUS TRACK. SURFACE SYNOPTIC DATA SUGGEST THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO 50 KT. CONTINUED GRADUAL WEAKENING WILL OCCUR AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER LAND TODAY. IN 12 HOURS...GLOBAL MODELS SHOW IRENE BECOMING EMBEDDED WITHIN A BAROCLINIC ZONE SO THE FORECAST SHOWS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY THAT TIME. SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER WINDS ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVER HIGH-RISE STRUCTURES AND AREAS OF ELEVATED TERRAIN. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/1500Z 41.4N 73.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 29/0000Z 44.5N 71.7W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 29/1200Z 49.0N 68.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 30/0000Z 53.0N 63.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 30/1200Z 56.0N 56.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 31/1200Z 60.0N 38.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 01/1200Z 62.0N 29.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 02/1200Z 63.0N 27.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ FORECASTER PASCH |
