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| #454398 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:37 PM 28.Aug.2011) TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 34 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011 500 PM EDT SUN AUG 28 2011 SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE CENTER IS BECOMING ELONGATED FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. WSR-88D RADAR DATA SHOW THAT THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIPITATION IS BECOMING DISPLACED WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. THESE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT IRENE IS BEGINNING TO LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS...BUT WE WILL RETAIN THE SYSTEM AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR NOW. IT IS LIKELY HOWEVER...THAT THE NEXT ADVISORY PACKAGE WILL BE THE LAST. AFTER THE CYCLONE BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL...GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE SYSTEM WILL NOT RESTRENGTHEN DUE TO BAROCLINIC FORCING...AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. THE INITIAL MOTION CONTINUES TO BE NEAR 020/23. IRENE OR ITS POST-TROPICAL COUNTERPART WILL CONTINUE TO BE STEERED BY THE FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF A BROAD MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. AFTERWARDS THE CYCLONE SHOULD TURN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD IN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR THIS ADVISORY IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS A BLEND OF THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS. SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER WINDS ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVER HIGH-RISE STRUCTURES AND AREAS OF ELEVATED TERRAIN. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/2100Z 42.7N 72.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 29/0600Z 46.5N 70.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 29/1800Z 50.8N 66.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 30/0600Z 54.5N 61.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 30/1800Z 57.0N 55.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 31/1800Z 60.0N 35.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 01/1800Z 63.0N 28.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 02/1800Z 64.0N 30.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ FORECASTER PASCH |
